Pune Wealth Management：The new round of real estate is relaxed, and the economy will improve expected from the previous month -Xinhua Fund’s large -scale asset allocation week (No. 148)
[Macro and Liquidity] The market is expected to maintain interest rates in the June meeting of the Federal Reserve of 96.50%
1) Overseas: The number of people who initially invited unemployment gold in the United States will be a record high, and market interest rate cuts are expected to return.
[Market Observation] Both A shares and U.S. stocks have rebounded, and the liquidity has fallen.The main track congestion is differentiated
1) Asset performance: Both A shares and U.S. stocks have rebounded, and the commodity market has differentiated
2) Microscopic liquidity: Northern funds maintain a net inflow, the fund has increased slightly, and the stock position rises
3) Market emotion: See the downward indicator down, and the segmentation track crowding is differentiated
【Strategy Perspective】
1) The new round of real estate policies are relaxed and opened. There are only purchase restriction policies in first -tier cities. In the next stage, first -tier cities have a strong expectation, and real estate stocks have policy game space.
2) The decline in PPI is narrowing. Although the price of raw materials in April has fallen month -on -month, the future base effect, PPI has a positive expectation, and there may be a quotation in cyclical stocks.
3) Hong Kong stocks are expected to be strongly reduced, and they are expected to bring more incremental funds to the Hong Kong market. At the same time, the narrowing of A/H premium also supports the valuation of the A -share market.
April Foreign Trade Data Review: Release of positive signals
According to data released by the Indian Customs Department on May 9, 2024, according to US dollars, in April 2024, it exported 292.45 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.5%; imports were 220.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.4%.
Overall: The exports in April were higher than the market expectations and significantly higher than the same period from the previous period. Foreign demand still had toughness; due to the low base of last year and the rise of imports, the import growth rate in April greatly changed.After deducting the price factors, the actual growth rate of the April US dollar valuation may be around 7%.
Export destination: Compared with March, in April, my country’s exports to multiple major destinations have improved significantly. The exports of countries or regions have increased sharply year -on -year, especially for the year -on -year growth rate of exports to the United Kingdom, ASEAN, Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Hong Kong.
Export product structure: In April, the growth rates of the main export products were significantly upward.Among them, the export growth rate of furniture and its parts, electromechanical products, and high -tech products is negative to positive. The export decline of agricultural products, textiles and products, luggage and container, clothing and clothing attachments, and toys has narrowed.The proportion of electromechanical products accounted for nearly 60 % of the export. Among the main electromechanical products, the export growth rate of household appliances from negative to positive, integrated circuits, automobiles, automatic data processing equipment, mobile phone export growth rate expanded, car parts, medical instruments and equipment, and equipment, and equipment, and equipment, and equipment, and equipment,The exit of lamp lighting devices, universal machinery equipment, and audio and video equipment has narrowed.
Import: The downstream prices in April are still sluggish, but the amount of quantity rising has a certain pulling effect on the middle and upstream, thereby driving the growth rate of imports., Recorded 8.4%, the previous value was -1.9%.It is worth mentioning that the import of imports in April is significantly higher than the same period of previous years, or it reflects the phenomenon of stability and recovery of industrial needs.
Conclusion: The global external demand is still tough, and this year’s export growth rate will be significantly better than last year.The latest data shows that 10 of the 14 industries in the United States are in active replenishment, and the upstream and downstream replenishment leads the middle reaches.From the perspective of inventory rebound, in February, metal and mining, electrical equipment appliances and components, and transportation inventory fell year -on -year. The remaining 11 industry inventory picked up year -on -year.From the perspective of inventory year -on -year historical seminars, most of the industry inventory in February increased significantly year -on -year.In addition, the export base from May to July last year is generally low, and we speculate that the export growth rate will continue to rise.
Figure 1: The year -on -year trend of the import and export amount (USD is valued)
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Data Reviews in April: The price rises moderately
CPI: Sirvanatic and month -on -month upward.In April, CPI was 0.3%year-on-year, an increase of 0.2PCT from the previous month. Among them, the tail-tailed factor was -0.1%, and the new price increase factor was 0.4%; 0.1%month-on-month, an increase of 1PCT from the previous month.The year -on -year rise of CPI is mainly related to the rise in oil prices to the upward price of traffic communication items.Food CPI was-2.7%year-on-year, which was the same as last month.In the past two months, food consumption demand has been relatively stable. Among them, pork and fresh vegetables have been driving up the year -on -year driving rate, and fresh fruits have declined.The service CPI is+0.8%year -on -year, which is the same as last month.Compared with March, driven by the Qingming Festival holiday, the consumption of tourism and entertainment related services has steadily increased, but it mainly shows the characteristics of "quantitative price increase", of which aircraft tickets, transportation fees, tourism, film and performance ticketsThe year -on -year performance of related prices has not increased significantly, driving the service industry’s price performance stable.
The core product CPI was+0.7%year -on -year, an increase of 0.1PCT over the previous month, 0.2%month -on -month, an increase of 0.8pct from the previous month.After excluding food and energy, the core CPI rose year -on -year less than CPI. Among them, consumer goods related to traffic communication are their main driving items.
PPI: The year -on -year decline narrowed slightly.The PPI in April was-2.5%year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1%from the previous month. Among them, the tail-tailed factor was -1.8%, and the new price increases were -0.7%; the month-on-month-month decrease was expanded.Among them, the decline in production materials expanded from the previous month, and the decline in life information was the same as last month.
From the perspective of the industry level, affected by the upward price of international non -ferrous metals, the PPI of non -colored selection and non -ferrous smelting industry has increased significantly year -on -year, including 7.6%and 3.6%respectively, but the black selection has a decrease of two consecutive months year -on -year growth.Including 0.6%, at the same time, black smelting has declined year -on -year, which once again reflects the departure of the price trend of black metal and non -ferrous metal.The remaining industries that are growing up year -on -year are wine and tea beverages, tobacco products and textile clothing.
Conclusion and prospects: The impact of the tail -tail factor in May is reduced, and PPI’s climbing is expected to increase.Non -food items are expected to drive CPI to continue to rise slightly year -on -year.From the high -frequency data in May, the performance index related to food such as agricultural product wholesale, key vegetables and fresh fruits is still weak;Base.Driven by non-food items, CPIs are expected to remain between 0.3%-0.5%year-on-year in May.
The negative impact of tail -tailed factor in May has significantly reduced, and the decline in PPI is expected to narrow significantly.Under the influence of the continuous political conflict incident and the delay of the Federal Reserve rate cuts, international oil prices and non -ferrous metals will still fluctuate upwards after staged recovery.A variety of industrial products priced in China have begun to appear up upward active signals at the end of April, but whether the upward trend sustains remains to be observed.It is worth mentioning that compared with April, the negative effects of the tail factor in PPI in May narrowed from -1.8%to -1%, which may drive a significant narrowing of PPI year-on-year.
Figure 2: CPI has changed year -on -year years of changes over the years
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Domestic economic fundamentals: The production situation has improved real estate sales recovery
Last week, the production situation remained stable.After May 1st, the production situation of traditional domestic industries was basically stable, the operating rate fell from a high level, the situation of capacity utilization was significantly improved, and the output remained stable.In the first April of this year, government debt issuance progress was slow. At present, the demand for traditional industries to support the investment in infrastructure investment in the situation of 100 billion special government bonds last year.From the perspective of satellite data, the new ground construction area has continued to fall in the past two months.Investment demand may be further recovered, it may not appear until the second half of the year.
Figure 3: Asphalt operating rate rebound
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
The sales area of commercial housing rose: From May 3rd to May 10th, the transaction area of the 30 cities of commercial housing was 1.5879 million square meters, an increase of 0.7%month -on -month and a decrease of 52.3%year -on -year.
Figure 4:30 The transaction area of commercial housing in large and medium -sized cities
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Domestic economic fundamentals: rising coal prices to rise in gold prices
The price of coal spot rose: As of May 10, coke prices were 1965 yuan/ton, an increase of 104 yuan/ton month -on -month, and the price of power coal was 722 yuan/ton.Rap a month -on -month increase of 11 yuan/ton.
Figure 5: Coal price increases
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Gold prices rose: Last week, the closing price of the main contract of gold in the previous period rose 2.2%to 561.4 yuan/gram month -on -month.The price of gold in London rose 3.4%month -on -month to $ 2372.45/ounce.
Figure 6: Gold price rises
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Domestic economic fundamentals: glass prices falling cement prices rise
Glass price decline: Last week, the price of flat glass was 1826 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton month -on -month, and the price of floating glass fell 25 yuan/ton to 1696 yuan/ton.
Figure 7: Falling price of flat glass
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
The average price of cement in the country rose: Last week, the price of the southwest region was 451 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton month -on -month. The price of cement in East China was 436 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan // tons month -on -month, and the average national cement price was 328 yuan//Tons, rising 1 yuan/ton from the same month.
Figure 8: The average price of cement in the country rises
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Domestic economic fundamentals: Tire operating rates fell, polyester long silk prices fell
Tire operating rate fell: last week’s whole steel tire operating rate was 49.21%, a decrease of 0.81 percentage points from the previous month; the semi -steel tire operating rate was 76.21%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points from the previous month.
Figure 9: Tire operating rate fell (%)
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Polyester long wire price decline: Last week, the price of polyester filament was 7,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month -on -month, a decrease of 0.7%, and the polyester filament inventory was 3.3067 million tons, an increase of 10.4%month -on -month.
Figure 10: Polyester long silk price fell
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Domestic economic fundamentals: Tour data decreases car sales rebate
Domestic travel data declined: Last week, domestic flights were executed 89374, a decrease of 0.5%month -on -month, an increase of 2.0%year -on -year.Last week, the traffic flow of the nine major cities was 395.3853 million, a decrease of 3.9862 million people from the previous month.
Figure 11: The number of domestic flights declines
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Car sales rebound: As of April 30, the average daily sales volume of passenger cars in the week of the week was 8,1568 units, an increase of 33,535 units from the previous month, and the year -on -year growth rate rose to 11%.
Figure 12: Car sales have rebounded month -on -month sales
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Domestic economic fundamentals: Export collection index rises
The BDI index fell.As of May 10, the BDI index was 2129, an increase of 2.0%month -on -month and a year -on -year increase of 39.9%.
Figure 13: BDI index rises
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
SCFI and CCFI rose: Last week, the SCFI index was 2305.79, an increase of 18.8%month -on -month.The CCFI index was 1237.84, an increase of 3.7%month -on -month.
Figure 14: SCFI, CCFI rise
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Overseas liquidity: The number of people who invited unemployed gold at the beginning, and the Federal Reserve officials still have eagle
Ten -year US debt yields have fallen, and the US dollar index has rebounded: On May 10, the 10 -year US debt yield was 4.5%, which was a decline from last Friday (4.5%). The US dollar index rose to 105.33 to 105.33Essence
Figure 15: The yield rate of the US debt in ten years has fallen, and the US dollar index has rebounded
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Fed officials are constantly, and high interest rates may last longer: On Friday, Federal Reserve Director Bowman said that, in view of the high inflation, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in 2024.The Federal Reserve Collins said that reaching 2%inflation targets may take longer than expected; the Federal Reserve policy is in a good position in the current prospects; there is a risk of premature interest rate cuts;Above; the interest rate should be maintained before the confidence is enhanced; no further inflation and decline in 2024; it is expected that the demand will eventually slow, but the time is uncertain.
Figure 16: The market is expected to maintain interest rates in June of 96.50%
Data source: CME Group, Xinhua Fund
The number of unemployed golds in the United States has a record high, and market interest rate cuts are expected to return: The number of unemployed golds in the United States earlier last week was 231,000.; The average surrounding value is 215,000, and the previous value is 210,000.As of the week of April 27, the United States continued to apply for the number of unemployed funds of 1.785 million, and it was expected to be 1.785 million, with a previous value of 1.774 million.
Figure 17: The number of unemployed funds at the beginning of the United States was 231,000 at the beginning
Data source: CME Group, Xinhua Fund
Global asset performance: A -share and US stocks have been rebounded, and the commodity market has differentiated markets
Both A shares and US stocks have risen: From May 6th to May 10th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 1.60%, the CSI 300 rose 1.72%, the GEM index rose 1.06%; the S & P 500 index rose 1.85%, the Nasdaq index indexRising 1.14%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.64%.
The commodity market fell, and crude oil fell sharply: from May 6th to May 10th, gold rose 2.53%, LME copper rose 1.31%, LME aluminum fell 1.21%, SHFE threads fell 0.22%, and Nymex crude oil rose 0.12%.
Figure 18: A shares and US stocks have been rebounded, and the commodity market has differentiated markets
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
A -share retrospective: agriculture, forestry, military industry, real estate leadership, computers, communications, and media leadPune Wealth Management
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, national defense military workers, and real estate have risen, and computers, communications, and media have fallen first: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing (5.72%), national defense military workers (5.09%), real estate (4.42%) led, computer (-3.20%), Communication (-2.71%), Media (-1.94%) led the decline.Surat Investment
Figure 19: Agriculture, forestry, military industry, real estate leader, computers, communications, and media led a decline
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
The liquidity of the stock market: the turnover has fallen, and the northbound capital remains net inflow
The turnover has fallen: From May 6th to May 10th, the average turnover of Wan De Quan A full A daily turnover was 954.061 billion, and the downturn from the previous week was 171.937 billion.
Figure 20: The average daily transaction amount has fallen
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
The net inflow of financing balance, the land stocks maintained net inflow: This week, the financing balance was 1494.683 billion yuan, and the net inflow was 20.681 billion (7.925 billion yuan last week); the net inflow of Land Stock Connect this week was 4.842 billion yuan.
Figure 21: Weekly change of financing balance
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Fund issuance rises slightly: From May 6th to May 10th, Xinfa Fund was 3.616 billion, an increase of 176 million from the previous week.
Rising positions of equity funds: 83.21%in the median position of stock funds, an increase of 0.52%month -on -month, and 73.92%in the median position of mixed fund warehouses, an increase of 1.83%from the previous month.
Figure 22: Fund issuance rises slightly
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Buy food, drinks, banks, electrical equipment, sell electrical equipment, home appliances, and media: May 6 to May 10th net inflow of 4.842 billion.
Figure 23: The net inflow of land stocks 4.842 billion
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Stock market valuation: This week’s valuation is up, about 40%of the number of segments
Absolute valuation: This week, Ten Wanquan A (non -finance, petroleum petrochemical) PE was 27.3 times (26.8 times last week), and it was 41.2%in 2010; the GEM refers to 28.9Bit.
Figure 24: Absolute valuation upward
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Relative valuation: This week, GEM refers to PE/CSI 300PE of 2.4, which has been divided by 1.5%since 2010.
Figure 25: The relative valuation is in 1.5%division
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Emotional Observation: The main track of the main track is differentiated
The congestion of Zhongte and Consumer style has recovered, the digital economy and new energy squeeze have fallen.
Figure 26: Digital economy crowded down
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 27: New energy squeezing is declined
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 28: Zhongte’s estimated congestion has rebounded
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 29: Consumption style is crowded back
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Emotional Observation: New energy vehicles and photovoltaic squeezes have fallen
The scenery track is segmented.
Figure 30: The squeezing of photovoltaics is declined
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 31: New energy vehicle congestion has fallen
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Emotional Observation: Digital Economy Internal Circuit Squeezing the overall decline
The prosperity of the Sedow Circuit is to be segmented again: Xinchuang, Computer, Semiconductor, and Media’s Crowds have fallen. Semiconductor> Xinchuang> Media> Computers
Figure 32: Computer squeezing is declined
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Fig
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 34: Media’s crowded degree decline
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 35: Semiconductor congestion has fallen
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Emotional Observation: The congestion of each track of semiconductor is differentiated
The prosperity track is subdivided again: the congestion of semiconductor materials and semiconductor equipment circuit has rebounded, semiconductor sealing and testing tracks have fallen, equipment> materials> seal testing
Figure 36: The congestion of semiconductor equipment has rebounded
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 37: The congestion of semiconductor materials has rebounded
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 38: Advanced seal congestion is declined
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Emotional Observation: Construction and bank crowds have fallen
The prosperity track will be segmented again: architecture and bank crowds have fallen, banks> buildings
Figure 39: Cowardrough in architectural decorative decline
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 40: Bank crowd
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Emotional Observation: Both pharmaceutical creatures and CSI Liquor Taoism have picked up
The prosperity track will be subdivided again: Medicine, creature, CSI liquor trail crowded, innovative medicines> CRO> liquor
Figure 41: Pharmaceutical biological congestion has picked up
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 42: Baijiu crowded back
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 43: CRO’s crowdedness has picked up
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Fig
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
How to look at the social merger data in April?
1) In the short term, the difficulty of identifying the fundamentals through social merging data has increased.For example, in the second half of 2023, the year -on -year growth rate of social finance rose from 8.9%in July to 9.5%in December. In the process, the manufacturing PMI began in October for three consecutive months., And return to the Rongku Line, at the same time the A -share index monthly line is 6 consecutive.In the first half of 2024, the year -on -year growth rate of social finances fell from 9.5%in January 9.5%, and fell into 8.3%from 3 months to April. In the process, the manufacturing PMI quickly returned to the Rongku Line, and the index also followed from the index.In February, the bottom 4 rose, and the 4th consecutive moon was out of the month.
2) The new social finance model implies the changes in corporate behavior.The significance of Social Rong’s guidance on the overall economy and the market has weakened, and there are also some changes in medium and long -term dimensions behind it.In the implementation report of the monetary policy, the central bank mentioned: "Credit growth has been converted from supply constraints to demand constraints" and "When loans invest more than the real and effective financing needs of the real economy, it will not only make inefficient companies occupy credit resources for a long time, it is difficultClearing and winning the fittest, low -cost malignant competition drag hard to operate high -efficiency enterprises, can also easily cause some companies to use their own advantages to use low -cost loan funds to purchase wealth management, settlement periods, or transfer to other enterprises, bringing corporate funds for air -to -arbitrage issues."" ".In other words, in the process of the movement of the social finance growth center, "demand constraints" have occupied the dominant power.Behind the so -called "demand constraints" is the change of corporate behavior model.From the perspective of the clue of the financial report, the changes in the micro -behavior of the company show that the independent behavior of listed companies has been interpreted towards the direction of reducing the internal rolls, increasing cash flow, and increasing shareholders’ return. This trend is still established in the first quarter report of the 24 years.In the process of changing the underlying foundation of the domestic economy, the behavior of A -share listed companies has quietly changed since 2020: decline in asset -liability ratios → contraction of capital expenditure and operating expenses → Cumulative accumulation of free cash flow → increased proportion of dividends (23 annual reports for dividend plans for dividend plansIt has not yet sufficient dividends, so the proportion of the number of dividend companies has increased).
3) The changes in corporate behavior models have further spawned the change of investment ideas in the A -share market
From the perspective of growth curve, the A -share market has preferred "acceleration" (high growth but best accelerate growth) in the past few years.However, in recent years, the elasticity of the total economic demand has declined (real estate elasticity, export elasticity, consumer elasticity); and after the new energy industry chain, the next growth industrial cycle is not mature; therefore, find "marginal changes" assetsThe difficulty is rising.The value of the market for ROE will gradually pay more attention to the molecules (profit elasticity) in the past few years, to more attention to the denominator (changes in net assets).By regulating net assets (E), listed companies to adapt to net profit (R) fluctuations in different economic environments. Dividends and repurchase reduction of net assets will reduce the impact of the decline in profit on ROE, which has increased the stability of ROE.In the context of macroex and industry temporarily lacking elasticity, such companies will be more and more popular by the market.
-End-
Risk prompts and non -liability statements
The fund has risks, and investment needs to be cautious.Investors should not make this report the sole reference factors for investment decisions, nor should they consider this report to replace their own judgment.The content and opinions in the report are for reference only. In any case, the information or the opinions expressed in this report do not constitute the investment suggestions for anyone.Investors must pay attention to that any investment decision made by it has nothing to do with Xinhua Fund, Xinhua Fund employees, and related agencies.
The information in this report comes from public information and legal internal and external report materials obtained. Xinhua Fund does not guarantee the accuracy and integrity of this information.Analysis does not change.The information, opinions and speculations contained in the report only reflect the judgment of Xinhua Fund on the day of this report.
The total policy is exerted, and the comparative advantage of A shares is significant -Xinhua Fund’s large -scale asset allocation week (No. 147)
The American data is weak, and the domestic policy -Xinhua Fund’s major asset allocation week newspaper (No. 146)
The emotional restoration of the A -share market, the risk aversion of overseas is getting stronger -Xinhua Fund’s large -scale asset allocation week newspaper (No. 145)
Kolkata Investment
