Mumbai Stock Exchange：[Galaxy Strategy Yang Chao] Is there still room for continuous rise in the Indian stock market in the future？

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Basic situation of the Indian stock market: India’s stock market is one of the most important emerging markets in the world, with rich historical and multi -level structures.The main exchanges include the Mumbai Stock Exchange (BSE) and the State Stock Exchange (NSE).From the perspective of the number of companies or market value, in the Indian stock market, the number and market value of finance, materials, industry and information technology industries are relatively high.

In 2024, the Indian stock market rose and decline: As of July 26, the Indian Sensex30 index rose 12.59%, compared with the strong global stock index performance.Among them, the telecommunications industry has the most prominent performance (+43.33%), and the industry, energy, and public utilities have increased higher than 36.95%, 34.71%, and 34.49%, respectively.

Why the Indian stock market performed well in the global capital market: (1) the significant contribution of the service industry and the active performance of the manufacturing and construction industry have supported the momentum of India’s economic growth.Against the background of the global economic slowdown, the unique toughness and growth potential of India’s economy will further support its leading position in emerging market growth.(2) The news that Modi was re -elected was recovered after the confirmation of the investor. The market’s expected market continuity for the market made the stock market quickly replenish the decline in the party’s seasons that were less than expected.(3) Stable inflows of internal and external capital to promote the growth of the Indian capital market.Since 2023, foreign investment in India has rebounded significantly, especially the increase in equity investment.Foreign investment is mainly concentrated in manufacturing, energy, computer services and financial services.At the same time, local investors show their firm confidence in the market and play a key role in the stability and development of the market.(4) The growth of major Indian stock indexes is mainly promoted by EPS.The revenue growth rate of listed companies in India in 2024 will increase slightly from 2023, and profit growth will rise sharply.Among them, as of the end of July, the Indian Sensex30 index in 2024 The year -on -year growth rate of operating income was 29.84%and the profit growth rate of profit growth was 20.29%;The growth rate forecast value was 24.23%.(5) The Indian stock market is famous for its strict listing and delisting system. On the one hand, the listing system of the Indian stock market is highly market -oriented. On the other hand, the delisting system of the Indian stock market strictly ensures the survival of the fittest in the market.

Does the Indian stock market still have room for rising?In the middle and long term, there is still room for upward, and its structural opportunities are greater than trending space.(1) Although the current valuation is relatively high compared to the historical level, compared to other major stock indexes around the world, the risk of the Indian stock market valuation bubble is relatively low, and there is room for further rising.(2) In terms of interest rate policies, the market unanimously predicts that the Bank of India may follow the pace of the Fed in the third quarter to take interest rate cuts.The combined interest rate reduction effect of internal and external internal and external will provide strong support for the further upward upward upward upward upward upward upward upper rise.(3) In terms of the growth rate of comprehensive operating income and the expected profit growth rate, the performance sorting of performance in the Indian industry index in the next two years is expected to be optional consumption, industry, telecommunications, medical and health, finance, public utilization, major consumption, major consumption, main consumption, main consumption, main consumption, main consumption, main consumption, and main consumption, and main consumption, and main consumption, and main consumption,Energy, information technology, materials.

Risks and issues that need to be vigilant: (1) There is a lot of room for improvement in the quality of population labor, and there is a large gap between the rich and the poor in society.(2) India’s net value of imports and exports continues to be negative, and the manufacturing exports of high -end and high -end technology -intensive products accounted for relatively few, which constitutes a bottleneck for the further development of the Indian technology sector.(3) Undefly development structure in the Indian industry is mainly based on the financial and information industry, and it is easy to accumulate the risk of bubble bubbles.

Overseas rate cuts are not as good as expected risks; geographical factors risk; risks of uncertain election results; risks of market emotional instability.

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This article is excerpted from the research report released by securities on August 6, 2024, "[Galaxy Strategy] Is there still room for continuous rise in the Indian stock market in the future?"

Analyst: Yang Chao

Recommendation: The relative benchmark index rose by more than 10%.

Neutral: The relative benchmark index increases between -5%to 10%.

Avoiding: relative benchmark index fell by more than 5%.

Recommendation: The relative benchmark index rose by more than 20%.

Careful recommendation: The relative benchmark index increases between 5%and 20%.

Neutral: The relative benchmark index increases between -5%to 5%.

Avoiding: relative benchmark index fell by more than 5%.

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